It Is Not Over Yet
Written by Larry Marciniak Wednesday, 23 December 2009 17:51
Views from Members
IT IS NOT OVER YET
When asked my opinion of President Obama’s election my reply has been that on July 4th 1776 we declared our independence and founded the country and on November 4th 2008 we saved it. That is how significant I feel the defeat of the right wing of the Republican Party was.
The radical right has not accepted defeat. They assume that the people did not take back America. They assume that President Obama’s election is a temporary setback. They believe that while you can’t fool all of the people all of the time, you can fool enough of the people enough of the time.
2009 elections
Anyone who reads a lot into off year elections does so at their own peril. They are notorious for appearing to predict more than they actually do. That being said, let’s explore a bit.
The gubernatorial losses in New Jersey and Virginia were certainly unfortunate but John Corzine had baggage and Creigh Deeds proved to be a weak candidate. Without wasting further time on dissecting these races I feel we can move on and not miss any lessons.
The House race in New York’s 23rd district was really interesting. On the surface you had a Democrat winning a seat that had been in Republican hands basically since the Civil War. Great for our side – right? Do not be too hasty. It is great for our side only if we analyze it and utilize the results to our advantage. Otherwise we will be lulled into sleep and beat in the “bigger games” to come.
Let’s recap the race. The Democratic candidate and eventual winner was Bill Owens. The Republican candidate was Dede Scozzafava. The Conservative Party candidate was Doug Hoffman.
Dede Scozzafava is an elected member of the New York State Assembly, (New York’s lower legislative body). She is generally acknowledged to be a moderate. Keep in mind that she is an elected, and therefore electable, Republican.
Doug Hoffman has never held political office. He does not live in the district he was running to represent. When interviewed by the Watertown Daily Times Mr. Hoffman displayed total ignorance of local issues and his “handler”, the former Republican House Majority Leader, Dick Armey, dismissed those issues as, “…parochial”, and therefore unimportant. To say that Mr. Hoffman was less than qualified would be very kind indeed.
The “establishment” of the right wing fringe of the Republican Party rushed in to endorse and/or aid Doug Hoffman. From media we had Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, Mark Levin, Sean Hannity, Neal Boortz and Michelle Malkin. The Governor’s charge was led by former ½ term Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, Rick Perry of Texas and when he woke up Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota. From the United States Senate Jim DeMint of South Carolina. From the Republican scrap heap: Fred Thompson, Gary Bauer, Newt Gingrich, Steve Forbes, Rick Santorum, Rudy Giuliani and Rick Lazio. The House was well represented by Dana Rohrbacher (California 46), Todd Thiart (Kansas 4), Howard “Buck” McKeon (California 25), Todd Akin (Missouri 2), Jeff Flake (Arizona 6), The Fair Tax Stooge - John Linder (Georgia 6), Steve King (Iowa 5), Mary Fallin (Oklahoma 5), Paul Broun (Georgia 10), John Fleming (Louisiana 4), John Shadegg (Arizona 3) he came without a baby this time, Trent Franks (Arizona 2), Tom McClintock (California 4), Jerry Moran (Kansas 1), Mark Souder (Indiana 3) and Michele Bachmann (Minnesota 6). Giuliani and Lazio might actually even know something about New York 23.
The point is that the wingnut fringe has taken control of the Republican Party. Most Republican politicians are so intimidated by the far right fringe to that they simply acquiesce to it. Many of those named in the above paragraph are legitimate nutcases. Some are simply misguided. But many are just looking at which way the hot air is blowing. In this race the fringe proved they are willing to figuratively eat their own young. On the surface they threw away a seat that they “owned”. That seat meant very little in a special election with the Democrats holding such a substantial margin in the House and they had to figure they have a good chance of retaking it in 2010. The fringe which now controls the Republican Party was sending a message to the sheep, be herded or be gone.
Two states had same sex marriage issues on their ballots. Although the circumstances in Maine and Washington varied a bit the results were the same – narrow losses for the pro same sex marriage sides with almost identical voter turnout levels.
In Maine the loss was by 27,729 votes with 54% turnout. In Washington the loss was by 112,980 votes with 50.47% turnout. The percentage margin of loss was also a bit higher in Washington but by no means a blowout.
What happened? Was it money? Money was actually very interesting on several levels. In Maine the progressive side was outspent by a huge margin. The top five donors on the progressive side combined for $417,000.00. The top five donors for the opposition totaled $1,751,000.00. The Roman Catholic Church took a big stand in Maine. The Church alone accounted for over $600,000.00.
In Washington the money story was very different. The progressive side enjoyed an advantage in excess of one million dollars. The Roman Catholic Church did not have a large presence in that race. As an interesting aside, Microsoft donated $100,000.00 to the progressive side. They deserve recognition for that and I hereby provide it.
Finding complete and reliable statistics that are broken down by meaningful demographics is always a problem but we do have good stats for total turnout. In Maine the 2008 turnout was 72.7% contrasted with the 2009 turnout of 54%. In Washington, a similar story exists with 2008 turnout of 67.7% versus 2009 turnout of 50.47%. Since most states did not have statewide elections in 2009 it is impossible to contrast the 2009 numbers with the 2009 numbers of a similar state (i.e. Maine with Vermont or Washington with Oregon.), let alone nation numbers. Therefore I will assert rather than conclude that turnout played a large role. I feel the conservative side did a better job of getting out the vote than the progressive side did.
Teabaggers
The most visible and vocal post 2008 election political group is undoubtedly the Teabaggers. United by their distain for taxes they have certainly made themselves heard. That visibility has been facilitated by, in effect, having a 24-hour cable television news network. They are also very well funded and not in the least part by Dick Armey’s Freedom Works. Their idols are Sarah Palin, Glenn Beck and Michelle Bachmann. Now there is a trio that will never let the facts get in the way of a good story.
One of their projects was to besiege the members of the House of Representatives on November 6, 2009 and confront them about health care legislation. The most interesting story to come out of this was the experience of Minnesota Congressman Keith Ellison. Representative Ellison found that the protesters who confronted him were simply misinformed. The powers behind the throne in this movement have whipped up their masses with fiction. That is not exceedingly difficult to achieve when you have an entity facilitating your message 24/7 over the airwaves.
While legitimate debate and discussion of any proposal to reform health care is certainly something Americans should invite and encourage, many of the Teabagger’s talking points have been total fabrications. There is an old adage that if you repeat a lie often enough it becomes the truth. This is one of the major offenses in the Republican playbook. George W. Bush used it repeatedly in the 2000 Presidential campaign. He repeatedly used untrue numbers when outlining his economic plan. Then he even had the gall to accuse Al Gore of using fuzzy math. Sarah Palin is still talking about Death Panels regardless of how many times their existence has been debunked. There are many other examples.
Why would prominent people utilize this strategy? Simple, it works. It may land them all in the Karl Rove wing of hell, but it works. Just by the fact that you are reading this, it is safe to assume that you are probably a political junkie and keep yourself well informed by seeking information from several and diverse sources. It’s tough to get a lie past you. However, most Americans simply don’t spend that much time informing themselves and therefore are inclined to believe what they see or hear from the limited source(s) they expose themselves to.
I feel in the long run the Teabag Movement will be an asterisk in our history. The fissures are already beginning to appear. After all it was never the true grassroots movement it was billed as. It has been dubbed an Astroturf movement since the “man behind the curtain” is well connected, well financed and has a hidden agenda. I feel sorry for the thousands of Americans who are being mislead and used against their own self-interests.
Even without the well-documented inflation of numbers, the crowds have been significant. It is a legitimate news item that receives deserved coverage. The hidden agendas of lower taxes for the rich and preserving the great deal American health insurance companies enjoy have been well served by unknowing pawns. Even though many in the general public dismiss the actions of this group as uncivilized they are effective in getting attention and press coverage. Remember the Republican Riot? On November 22, 2000 a crowd of supposedly grassroots Floridian protesters succeeded in stopping the recount at the offices of the Miami-Dade County Canvassing Board. It was later confirmed by, among others, the pro-Republican Wall Street Journal, that the participants were non-Floridians organized and financed by the Bush-Cheney campaign. But it was too late, the damage to democracy was done and the mission of the Republicans was accomplished.
The ballot
The name varies from state to state. Amendments, propositions, ballot initiatives etc. They are items placed on the ballot in addition to the selection of candidates for office. The Republicans have kicked our collective butts in the self-serving utilization of them. It is common for the addition of an anti-abortion or anti gay marriage issue to appear on a ballot to help increase the turnout of voters predisposed to voting Republican. This is totally legal and ethical. Granted, I don’t for a moment think the Republicans really care about the outcome of the issue they just want to get their slate of candidates elected. This is essentially an effective method of stuffing the ballot box.
I can hear the skeptics now. Gotcha, they are saying. You just wrote about the gay marriage issues in Maine and Washington in 2009. There were no statewide races to affect therefore you lie! Not so fast. One interesting factor that both had in common is that they were timed to overturn the actions of the legitimately elected state legislatures.
What Democrats need to do is look to help some of the single interest groups in our tent by placing their issues on the ballot to help our candidates in the all important turnout game. When we do let’s be honest and really work with these groups and help advance our mutual agenda.
Who really won in November 2008?
The old term is coattails. Did the Democratic Party win in 2008 or did we just ride President Obama’s coattails? I remember talking to countless voters who said they had not seen such energy and excitement since the 1960 campaign. I share that opinion. I am concerned about the 2010 elections. The party in power traditionally losses some seats in the mid-term election. Perhaps, and only perhaps, we could afford to lose some seats in the House but under the current rules in the Senate we cannot afford any backsliding in that chamber. The Republicans have utilized the party of no strategy effectively and would logjam the Senate just to stop the President from being able to claim any accomplishments. They will even do so to the domestic detriment of the country they claim to love so much.
Having been one of the thousands on the frontline in 2008 I saw that the motivation was often provided by the promise that President Obama was able to generate as well as the disgust at the performance of President Bush. While we may still have his mess to cleanup we don’t have George W. Bush to run against anymore. Newsflash, President Obama isn’t running in 2010.
Where do we go from here?
Right now its extreme right wing is controlling the Republican Party. The Republicans are at their low point and seem to be purging their small tent of anyone who is not “philosophically pure”. That should leave them with a very small core, and sheep.
Conversely, we Democrats are at a high point and our tent is very large and diverse. That should leave us strong. However, with power comes responsibility and accountability. Regardless of validity, in the court of public opinion we can only go on blaming George W. Bush and company for so long. Also a big tent means a large agenda.
We have lost the fire in the belly. I see us counting our winnings and being too complacent. The future is not guaranteed! Relying on the Republicans to self-destruct is not sufficient. The American voters have a short memory. Come 2010 and 2012 they will have forgotten just how bad things were under the previous administration. It is unreasonable to expect the economy to be humming along like a well-tuned engine in time for the 2010 elections. Who is going to receive the blame? Fairly or not, it will be the Democrats. If the losses are significant in 2010 how cooperative do you expect the next Congress to be? I’ll give you the entire Republican game plan in a word: obstruction.
We need to motivate the base and lay the groundwork that helped us attain our success in 2008. At the local level in particular we need to be visible in a positive way. Let the Teabaggers act like Kindergarteners who had too much chocolate. Let our image be positive and theirs negative. Let the regressive opposition be caught in their lies, we need to keep the truth on our side. The nuts and bolts of voter registration and fundraising never go away but that is not in and of itself enough. We also need to reach out to and serve the community. In my opinion the essence of being a Democrat is the desire to help your fellow Americans.
Larry Marciniak
December 2009